Energy access and transitions

Clean energy deployment is growing, but the next stage of the transition also depends on grids, storage, flexibility, efficiency, and electrification. In developing economies, high financing costs and uneven investment also slow progress towards reliable, affordable electricity and clean cooking. Coordinated investment and energy planning can support decarbonization, energy security and universal access, but current investment and delivery remain too concentrated and too slow.

Status

Clean-energy investment and deployment are advancing, but remain insufficient in scale, speed and geographic reach, particularly in EMDEs excluding China. Lower technology costs strengthen the transition’s economics, yet grids, storage and other enabling infrastructure lag generation, while energy security pressures have pushed coal supply investment to its highest level since 2012. Investment is concentrated in a few markets and high capital costs constrain opportunities elsewhere. Electricity and clean-cooking access are improving through major programs, but large populations remain underserved. The challenge is building resilient, integrated, and affordable energy systems that reduce emissions while meeting growing demand.

Scale

Magnitude relative to the need

Slow

Clean-energy investment is substantial globally but far below the level required across EMDEs excluding China, whose transition is rated Moderate-Low. Investment in these economies is expected to reach USD 415 billion in 2026 against roughly USD 2 trillion annually needed by 2035 under the IEA's net-zero pathway; the global clean-energy total is expected to reach USD 2.2 trillion in 2026 (IEA, 2026b). Universal energy access is rated Low: electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa needs approximately USD 15 billion annually through 2035, against less than USD 2.5 billion committed for new connections in 2023 (Borgstein et al., 2026).

Speed

Pace of reform against what's needed

Slow

Investment continues to grow, but clean-energy momentum is slowing. Global energy-transition investment growth eased from 27% in 2021 to 8% in 2025; clean-energy investment in EMDEs excluding China is expected to rise 4% in 2026, against 7% in advanced economies and China (BloombergNEF, 2026; IEA, 2026b). Over 2,500 GW of renewable and storage projects remain in connection queues (IEA, 2026d). Universal energy access receives a higher rating, Moderate, as delivery is accelerating in major programs: Mission 300's connection pace had nearly doubled by June 2026. Even so, these gains remain insufficient for universal access by 2030.

Reach

How far it extends across countries and institutions

Slow

Transition investment is assessed Moderate-Low for reach, but universal access is Low. Clean-energy finance remains heavily concentrated: China is expected to receive USD 690 billion in 2026, against USD 48 billion for Africa (31% and 2% of global investment, respectively) (IEA, 2026b). Clean-energy projects in EMDEs face capital costs two to three times those in advanced economies and China (Erdogan and Hatton, 2025). More than 560 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa lack electricity and about 970 million lack clean cooking (IRENA et al., 2026). Programs are expanding, but financing remains poorly matched to poorer and remote households.

Impact

Depth of real world effect

Slow

Both energy transitions and universal access receive Moderate-Low assessments. Renewable growth is changing power systems, but wider EMDE outcomes are unevenly documented. In 2025, renewables accounted for 76% of Brazil's 7.5 GW of new power capacity, while non-fossil sources reached approximately half of India's installed capacity (IIR Energy, 2026; IEA, 2026b). Global renewable and nuclear generation growth also exceeded total generation growth, while fossil generation declined. In energy access, Mission 300 connected over 50 million people by June 2026, and around 12 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa gained clean-cooking access in 2024. Connection counts do not establish reliability or affordability.

Action fronts

Climate finance reform advances on five fronts, from replenishing the funds that already exist to reshaping how the whole system works. These are the fronts where Energy access and transitions is making headway.

Re-channeling
Revamping
Overhauling the institutions, rules, and instruments that climate finance runs on

The Path Forward

Clean-energy investment must scale faster and extend beyond a few markets, with grids, storage, distribution, transmission, and electrification advancing alongside generation. Lower financing costs and delivery models suited to underserved households are essential to achieve reliable, affordable energy and universal access.

Countries need transition and investment strategies that plan generation, networks, storage, flexibility, efficiency and electrification together, supported by stronger utilities, regulation, permitting and project preparation. Governments, MDBs and private financiers should lower financing and currency risks and expand long-term and local-currency investment, especially in Africa and lower-income markets. Transmission and distribution investment must advance alongside demand-side efficiency and electrification across buildings, transport and industry, so that falling technology costs translate into system-wide change. Universal access also requires targeted support for grid connections, mini-grids, distributed renewables and clean cooking, with models suited to poorer and remote households. Energy-security and industrial strategies should support resilient supply chains and harder-to-abate sectors and reduce methane emissions without locking in higher emissions. Monitoring should extend beyond connection counts to track reliability, affordability and emissions outcomes.